Geopolitics and Global Markets: Logistics as a Driver of Business Growth and Competitiveness

My name is Olimpia Ferrara, economist at SRM, Research Centre related to the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. In this episode, I explore Geopolitics and Global Markets: Logistics as a Driver of Business Growth and Competitiveness

Today, corporate competitiveness is evolving: it does not depend only on firms’ ability to compete, but increasingly on their control over trade flows, routes, and supply chains within an unstable global environment.

In this context, logistics plays a pivotal role, accounting for approximately 12% of global GDP. Logistics infrastructure -both physical and digital - forms the backbone of international trade: around 90% of global trade volumes travel by sea, while 95% of digital communications traffic runs through submarine cables.

This is a capital-intensive and dynamic sector capable of attracting global investment and operators.

However, these networks are becoming increasingly exposed to geopolitical risks. Tensions in strategic areas such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the balance of international trade. A case in point is the Suez Canal, which has recorded a roughly 50% decline in transit volumes over the past two years. At the same time, major Mediterranean container ports increased their throughput by 6% year-on-year, reaching 72 million containers.

This contrast clearly illustrates the current phase of globalization: not a contraction in trade, but its reallocation along new routes. Companies and major logistics operators are responding by developing alternative shipping lanes.

Alongside the global dimension, the regional one is also strengthening, with a growing importance of intra-Mediterranean flows. The Mediterranean now accounts for between 12% and 20% of global maritime traffic, while Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is playing an increasingly significant role in European supply chains.

In this framework, Italy holds a strategic position, ranking #1 in the EU27 for Short Sea Shipping. Thanks in part to its geographical location, the country serves as a natural gateway connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. In 2025, Italian ports handled more than 500 million tonnes of cargo (+3.5%).

Italy is also the world’s seventh-largest exporter of goods, and its competitiveness is increasingly dependent on the efficiency of its logistics infrastructure.

Today, competition is driven primarily by the quality of connections: transit times, reliability, modal integration, and the ability to adapt to geopolitical disruptions. In this regard, intermodality—i.e., the integration of different transport modes—is a critical factor in ensuring fluid trade flows.

For Italy, this challenge is particularly relevant. An SRM survey shows that rail freight accounts for around 11.6% of total cargo transport, compared to an EU27 average of 16%. However, in some ports, intermodality already plays a central role in the logistics system, reaching shares of 54% in Trieste and 28% in La Spezia, showing its importance as a key competitive driver.

Public policy is also moving in this direction. The Public Finance Document allocates over EUR 1.7Bn in investments to strengthen last-mile road and rail connections in ports, with the aim of improving accessibility and enhancing supply chain fluidity.

In conclusion, the challenge is not only infrastructural but systemic. In a context marked by geopolitical instability and the reconfiguration of trade routes, intermodal capacity represents the key lever to enhance the connectivity of the national productive system.

Logistics accounts for roughly 12% of global GDP and underpins international trade. Around 90% of world trade by volume moves by sea, while 95% of digital communications run through undersea cables — making logistics infrastructure critical for any globally competitive business.

Tensions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping international shipping. Transits through the Suez Canal have dropped by around 50% over the past two years, forcing operators to develop alternative routes. Meanwhile, Mediterranean container ports have increased their throughput by 6%.

Short Sea Shipping (SSS) refers to maritime transport of goods over relatively short distances, often within regional seas like the Mediterranean. Italy leads the EU27 in SSS and it plays a growing role in European distribution chains as an alternative to road freight.

Intermodal transport integrates different modes — sea, rail, and road — to improve the flow of goods. In Italy, ports like Trieste (54% sea-rail container traffic) and La Spezia (28%) show strong intermodal performance. Rail freight accounts for 11.6% of freight transport in Italy, below the EU27 average of 16%, highlighting room for improvement.