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The impact of the war on the Italian economy

Gregorio De Felice, Chief Economist Intesa Sanpaolo
fruition time: 8 min


The impact of the war on the Italian economy

The impact of the war on the Italian economy



The outbreak of the war in Ukraine has resulted in a slowdown in the Italian economy due above all to our dependence on imported energy, the costs of which have increased dramatically. The outlook, however, remains positive for this year and 2023 with GDP growth still above potential.

Even in this delicate phase, Italy can count on some strengths that make its economy more solid despite the geopolitical tensions, the surge in inflation and the monetary tightening initiated by central banks.

Indeed, our country has witnessed a significant improvement in the health situation following the pandemic season. Exports continue to perform well and yield positive results. The level of savings remains high. Government measures in support of businesses and the income of less well-off families have been substantial and have so far amounted to EUR 30Bn.

Italian companies also show strong competitiveness, are more capitalised and more open to international expansion.

A key role in supporting the economy is played by the banking sector which, since 2008, has contributed to countering four crises, maintaining high capital ratios and significantly improving credit quality.

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