Top Picks 2025 – Super Champions flexing their muscles
2025 looks to be a positive year for listed companies and the equity market in Italy. The trend in corporate earnings is expected to improve next year for the FTSE MIB (+5%), after a declining 2024 (-13%), due to the Auto sector; profit dynamics are expected to strengthen again in Italy in 2026 (+9%), returning to the pre-pandemic growth rate of 2019. For the Euro Stoxx, profits are also seen accelerating after a flat 2024: +9% in 2025, followed by +11% in 2026.
GDP growth in Italy, according to our forecasts, is expected to accelerate to +1% in both 2025 and 2026 (from +0.5% in 2024), driven by improving domestic consumption next year, and by NRRP spending in particular in 2026, the last year of the plan.
We expect the FTSE MIB index to rise by 9% by year-end 2025, and a further upside of 7% by year-end 2026, when the FTSE MIB is expected to reach 40,000, with an overall rise of 16% over a 2-year horizon, with a slight increase in Price/Earnings multiples, and a risk premium in Italy falling towards 6.0%, its long-term average.
What are the business characteristics we look for in our ‘Super-Champions’ for 2025? For Non-Financials: strong price leadership; strong brand recognition; beneficial exposure to a stronger USD; the ability to withstand tariffs and trade restrictions. For Financials: a low interest rates sensitivity; superior asset quality; strong capital remuneration capacity; a strong distribution network.
SOURCE Intesa Sanpaolo elaborations