Concerns are growing in the markets among investors about the spillover of the war between Russia and Ukraine on corporate earnings. Attention has quickly shifted from the issue of inflation, which has been rising sharply in the early part of the year, to that of growth.
The year 2022 has started positively in terms of corporate earnings, but the peak may have already passed in particular for Non-Financial stocks (excluding energy).
The real risk of a downward revision in earnings, however, should be focused on 2023. We believe that inflationary pressures should start receding in late 2022 and over the next year, and that a parliamentary majority will emerge from the general elections expected in February/March 2023 that will continue the reforms agreed with the European Union, facilitating the inflow of NRRP funds.