The Italian manufacturing industry will end 2022 with turnover at constant prices growing at a trend rate of 2.1%, a robust rate after rebounding close to 16% the previous year. Among the best sectors: Building Materials (up 7%), Fashion System (up 5.8%), Pharmaceuticals (up 5.2%) and Mechanical engineering (up 4.8%). In difficulty is Automotive, due to critical supply issues and the slow recovery of domestic demand.
However, the good yearly performance in 2022 hides a sharp slowdown in activity in the final part of the year, which will continue in 2023 causing domestic manufacturing turnover to contract by about 1% annually, at constant prices, and growth to slow at current prices (4.2%).
Inflation and high global uncertainty driven by geopolitical factors will impact the spending capacity of households and businesses, negatively affecting consumption and investments, partly offset by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
It is not until 2024 that we expect a reduction in the operating environment’s tensions and manufacturing activity recovery, at a moderate pace (+1.9% turnover at constant prices).
SOURCE: 102° Industrial Sectors Analysis Intesa Sanpaolo - Prometeia